Russia may target Baltic region amid struggles in Ukraine, says Lithuanian defence minister

Lithuania’s defence minister has warned that Russia may seek new targets in the Baltic region and Poland as it fails to achieve victory in Ukraine.

Speaking to LRT Radio on Monday, Robertas Kaunas said Moscow is searching for a new escalation or “victory” as its war in Ukraine stalls, domestic pressure grows, and public support wanes.

“Since the war in Ukraine is not going as Russia planned, they cannot win the war in Ukraine, and today there are explosions in Russia itself, fuel shortages… Russian society is already asking the Kremlin regime why this is happening and where is the promised victory,” Kaunas said.

He added that the Baltic region and Poland are the most accessible targets for Moscow in this context. His comments follow reports in foreign media, confirmed by BNS, that Russia is planning provocations in Poland or the Baltic states to test NATO unity.

According to President Gitanas Nausėda, intelligence data supports these reports, with potential Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, using both conventional and other means.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has also suggested that Russia could stage a “false flag” operation using Ukrainian drones.

In response to the threats, Lithuania has recently strengthened the protection of its critical transport and energy infrastructure. Kaunas stated that daily intelligence assessments and coordination with allies are underway to prevent hybrid attacks.

“We assess the situation, we see Russia’s aggressive tone, unfounded accusations against the Baltic states, and such provocative behaviour. Lithuania is not provoking Russia in any way. We are a sovereign country, a member of NATO and the EU, and we choose to strengthen our defence, our army, and our integration into Western civilisation—and this should not provoke Russia in any way,” the minister said.

Discussions about potential Russian provocations have intensified as Moscow faces increasing pressure on the battlefield. In recent months, Ukraine has conducted several successful drone operations against Russian oil industry facilities.