Russia’s future may resemble North Korea, says Lithuanian historian

Europe may need to learn to live alongside a different Russia in the future, similar to how the world coexists with North Korea, according to Vilnius University professor Alfredas Bumblauskas, speaking on LRT Radio’s Svarbus pokalbis.

Bumblauskas argued that recent historical disputes between Poland and Ukraine, including conflicts over state awards and the interpretation of events like the Volyn tragedy, undermine decades of reconciliation efforts. These tensions, he said, contradict the vision of Polish intellectual Jerzy Giedroyc, who advocated for partnership-based relations between Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Belarus (the ULB concept).

“Giedroyc worked for 50 years to ensure the ULB concept was not one of bloodlands. Poland should be great because of responsibility, not imperialism. Responsibility somewhat unites Poles, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Lithuanians,” Bumblauskas said.

He criticised the symbolic conflicts, such as Poland’s decision to revoke state honours, stating that historical truth cannot be monopolised by one side. “This war of orders is, in my view, entirely misplaced. Formally, the Polish side may have more rights, but that doesn’t mean they can wave the flag of justice. There is no one-sided truth,” he said.

Discussing the Volyn tragedy and Ukraine’s decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), Bumblauskas warned against one-sided assessments of historical figures and events, drawing parallels with Lithuania’s own debates, such as those surrounding the June Uprising. “It’s very similar to our discussions about the June Uprising, where we passionately praise the rebels. We say they fought for Lithuania’s independence—but for a Lithuania without Jews. These are very similar problems faced across the ULB region, the bloodlands region,” he noted.

He emphasised that many of the region’s tragedies stemmed from totalitarian regimes, citing historian Timothy Snyder’s work. “Snyder clearly showed that totalitarian regimes were behind all of this. They don’t care about people’s fates, not even numbers. Sometimes smaller nations think they can play the same game. But what happens when you lose your head? You start following the dictator’s whims,” Bumblauskas said.

According to the professor, historical disputes like the interpretation of the Volyn tragedy will not have a single answer that satisfies everyone. Instead, he advocated for creating conditions where different perspectives can be heard. “The whole truth is almost unspeakable, and half-truths satisfy no one. An objective account—where there is both victim and executioner—is impossible. Liberal historiography always tries to create consensus, but I am closer to Chantal Mouffe’s idea that democracy is not consensus but civilised clashes of opinion, where everyone can speak and be heard,” he said.

Bumblauskas argued that the current Poland-Ukraine dispute primarily benefits Russia by weakening mutual trust among regional states. “Who benefits from this? Who is clapping? Those who protect the rights of nations. And who protects the rights of nations? Paradoxically, the Kremlin,” he said.

He stressed that relations with neighbouring states should be based not on historical grievances but on Giedroyc’s idea of cooperation and mutual respect. “Giedroyc said Poland must understand that the future Lithuania will be with Vilnius, and the future Ukraine will be with Lviv. Poland needs to develop a chain of friendly states in the East and dominate not politically or militarily, but at least culturally. And it must have empathy,” Bumblauskas concluded.