Lithuania sees no immediate kinetic threat from Russia but notes rising aggression

Lithuania’s defence minister has stated that while there is currently no conventional military threat from Russia, intelligence indicates growing aggression from the Kremlin.

Speaking to journalists on Wednesday, Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas clarified that Lithuanian intelligence has not observed a buildup of Russian military forces near the country’s borders. “Our intelligence is working, and we do not see Russian forces accumulating near our border. There is no conventional threat at the moment,” he said.

However, Kaunas acknowledged increasing provocations, including potential “false flag” operations, and noted that intelligence reports point to rising aggressive behavior from Russia. His comments follow President Gitanas Nausėda’s statement that Russia may be planning selective kinetic operations against neighboring states. Nausėda previously emphasized that Russia, already engaged in Ukraine, would struggle to sustain military operations on two fronts. He also warned that any attack on a NATO member would trigger a strong Alliance response.

Estonia recently reported that Russia conducted unannounced military drills near its border, including live-fire exercises on Lake Peipus on July 9. Estonian authorities confirmed they had not been notified in advance. In June, Lithuania’s Interior Ministry warned of possible Russian provocations against critical infrastructure in the Baltic states, prompting reinforced security measures for bridges, power substations, gas supply systems, and communication nodes. The Public Security Service, supported by the Lithuanian military if needed, is overseeing these efforts.

Earlier this month, the UK’s Telegraph reported that the US had warned Poland of a potential limited Russian military provocation in the coming months. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski neither confirmed nor denied the report but stated that, given the source’s reliability, it was likely accurate. Sikorski also accused Moscow of preparing “something,” drawing parallels to the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

LRT first reported the story.