NATO air defence in the Baltics: promises and reality – what has changed?

Despite positive announcements about the launch of an air defence mission, NATO has not fulfilled its promise made three years ago in Vilnius to permanently deploy air defence systems in the Baltic states on a rotational basis, reports LRT.

The reason is a shortage of such systems across Europe, as well as the high demand for them in Ukraine. However, the defence minister assures that the newly launched air defence mission will allow for the rapid deployment of these systems when needed, without political debates.

Three years ago, NATO leaders agreed in Vilnius to deploy air defence systems in the Baltic states on a rotational basis, meaning they would be present continuously, with only the deploying countries changing. A year later, the defence minister announced the system was starting to work.

“We are negotiating the arrival of specific air defence systems in Lithuania up to and including ‘Patriot’. This will happen this year,” said former Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas in 2020–2024.

However, these remained just promises. In 2024, the Netherlands deployed a ‘Patriot’ system for ten days, and in 2025, Italy did the same briefly. Similar situations occurred in Latvia and Estonia.

“There is more information on this issue in non-public spaces, and it is not as unfavourable to Lithuania as it seems. These systems exist. – Are they from allies, not Lithuania? – Not Lithuania’s,” said Rimantas Sinkevičius, chairman of the Seimas National Security and Defence Committee.

“This is definitely not what we expected from the rotational model,” said Laurynas Kasčiūnas, deputy chairman of the Seimas National Security and Defence Committee.

The reasons for this are the lack of air defence capabilities in Europe and the greater need for them in Ukraine. “There is a chronic shortage of these systems in the alliance. Figures have shown that NATO has only 5% of the capabilities needed to defend the entire eastern flank,” said Tomas Jermalavičius, head of research at the Defence and Security Centre in Tallinn.

At the NATO summit in Ankara, leaders did not mention the rotational deployment of air defence systems but took a step further: replacing the air policing mission in the Baltic states with an air defence mission.

“This gives NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe the ability to redeploy, change plans, and relocate capabilities where they are most needed, avoiding political debates that sometimes arise,” said incoming Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas.

The minister assures that this also means additional air defence systems could be deployed: “Additional air defence capabilities could be deployed as quickly as possible when needed, avoiding all political debates.”

“To deploy something, you need to have something to deploy. The lack of these capabilities is a real, physical shortage of air defence systems, which is the biggest challenge,” commented Kasčiūnas.

In reality, replacing air policing with an air defence mission is, for now, just a political decision. “This is a signal to allies that this is one of the priority regions and that commitments must be made here, and more resources must be allocated,” said Jermalavičius.

According to the expert, Estonian politicians present the change in mission status differently than Lithuanians. “Estonian politicians do not talk about this at all; they focus more on changes in the rules of engagement for fighter pilots and algorithm changes,” said Jermalavičius.

The expert emphasises the importance of national capabilities. The new government’s programme, presented to the security committee, acknowledges the challenges in ensuring air defence.

“We are now racing against time, trying to accelerate processes as much as possible and acquire radars, kinetic systems, and anti-drone and drone solutions,” said Kaunas.

An additional €800 million has been allocated this year to strengthen air defence. “The plan that has been created is very fragmented and only partially solves the problem. According to our calculations, by 2035, investments