No signs of Russian military attack on Baltics, but sabotage threat remains high

Lithuania’s Defence Ministry has stated there are currently no indications that Russia is preparing a large-scale military attack against the Baltic states, though the threat of sabotage remains high, BNS reports.

“There are no indications that Russia is preparing for a large-scale military offensive against the Baltic states, but the threat level of sabotage—such as arson or other actions targeting critical infrastructure in Lithuania—remains elevated,” the ministry told BNS.

The British newspaper The Guardian, citing sources, reported on Friday that Russia may be planning a “provocation” against the Baltic states or Poland. The ministry, however, suggested such reports aim to escalate tensions in the region.

“The Second Operational Services Department has observed an increase in Russian disinformation regarding the alleged use of Baltic states’ airspace and territory for military operations against Russia,” the ministry said. It added that this rhetoric seeks to divert attention from Russia’s setbacks on the battlefield and undermine allies’ resolve to support Ukraine militarily.

“We continuously monitor the situation and inform decision-makers,” the ministry stated.

The Guardian claimed the Kremlin may test NATO unity as Russia faces growing pressure from Ukraine. The newspaper noted that Latvia’s intelligence had earlier reported signs of Russia planning military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, though these would not amount to a full-scale invasion.

Last week, Lithuania’s Chief of Defence, General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, said Russia’s aggressive rhetoric and provocations aim to erode public trust in state institutions. He linked the escalating Kremlin rhetoric to the situation on the Ukrainian front.

Two weeks ago, the Interior Ministry announced enhanced protection for strategic objects in response to potential Russian provocations. The State Security Department will strengthen physical security at critical infrastructure sites, with support from the Lithuanian military if needed.

The ministry also noted that Russia has been spreading false claims that Baltic states allow their airspace or territory to be used by other countries for military actions against Russia.

In February, the Second Operational Services Department reported active hostile intelligence and security service activity on social media, attempting to recruit residents.