Lithuania must show Russia it has teeth and can bite back, says security analyst

Lithuania and its Baltic neighbours must demonstrate resolve in countering Russian provocations involving drones, former ambassador to Russia Eitvydas Bajarūnas told LRT Television’s *Svarbi valanda* (*Important Hour*), as reported by LRT.lt.

His comments follow a series of incidents in which NATO fighters intercepted drones near Latvian and Estonian airspace. On Monday, Latvian forces scrambled jets along its eastern border with Russia over a potential airspace violation, while NATO aircraft based in Šiauliai, Lithuania, earlier shot down a military drone over southern Estonia. Estonia’s defence minister suggested the drone was likely Ukrainian, and Ukraine later apologised for the incident.

Russia had previously threatened to strike Latvian “decision-making centres” if drones targeting Russia were launched from its territory. Moscow’s foreign intelligence service also claimed—without evidence—that Ukrainian forces were preparing drone attacks on Russia from Latvia. Latvian officials have repeatedly denied permitting their airspace for strikes against Russia.

Bajarūnas argued that Russia is deliberately escalating tensions to test NATO’s cohesion and deter Baltic support for Ukraine. “We often say a wounded beast bites the hardest. I’m not claiming Russia is already weakening or losing, though it’s increasingly difficult for them to manage both domestic issues and Ukrainian drone strikes reaching deeper into their territory,” he said. “Russia will keep biting, and that aggression is directed at NATO—to show they’re still strong. The message to the Baltics is clear: stop supporting Ukraine, be afraid, turn on each other, and start shooting down drones.”

He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin is also signalling to his own population that the Kremlin remains capable of projecting power despite setbacks. “Putin is sending a message: *‘We are strong, we can threaten.’* Unfortunately, we’ll see more threats—but not just threats. We may face more drones, more kinetic attacks,” Bajarūnas warned.

While he dismissed the risk of Russia opening a new conventional front, he cautioned that hybrid threats—including drone swarms, cyberattacks, and sabotage like those seen in the Baltic Sea—could intensify. “We don’t need to prepare for all-out war, but we *must* be ready for hybrid aggression. The fact that we struggled with a single drone sends the wrong signal. NATO jets are expensive; shooting down drones with F-16s isn’t ideal, but we have to do it. We need to show Russia we have teeth—and we can bite.”