Lithuanian president’s drone warning linked to political crisis in Latvia, says expert

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda’s statement warning against using the country’s territory for drone overflights is tied to the political crisis in Latvia, disinformation expert Nerijus Maliukevičius told LRT on Monday.

While the warning was necessary, its tone was unusually stern given Lithuania’s strategic partnership with Ukraine, defence analyst Giedrimas Jeglinskas added.

Maliukevičius, a lecturer at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science, called the presidential statement Lithuania’s first official response to months of Russian propaganda claiming Baltic and Scandinavian airspace was being used for Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets.

“The Kremlin’s goal with this campaign has primarily been to justify to its domestic audience why Russian ports are burning—shifting blame not just to Ukraine but to NATO states allegedly providing airspace,” he said. “We hadn’t responded officially until now.”

The expert linked the timing of Nausėda’s remarks to Latvia’s ongoing political turmoil, triggered by the resignation of its defence minister after a Ukrainian drone crashed in the country. “This is a kind of message, a reaction attempting to manage potential political chaos—both there and here,” Maliukevičius said.

He cautioned against overinterpreting the Kremlin’s claims as a pretext for military invasion, arguing the campaign carries greater risks of political destabilisation than direct military escalation. “We’re seeing a practical example in Latvia—public statements, reactions, and the need for very careful handling by our leaders to prevent further escalation of this disinformation hybrid campaign,” he noted.

Jeglinskas, the defence analyst, acknowledged the necessity of the president’s warning as head of state but described its tone as “harsh,” particularly given Lithuania’s support for Ukraine. He suggested private coordination likely preceded the public statement to avoid misunderstandings.

Both experts agreed the timing reflects the evolving nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine, where long-range drones are playing an increasingly central role. “This is modern warfare, and its end isn’t in sight,” Jeglinskas said. “The risk that drones could violate our airspace is real.”