Russia’s breaking point: where is the limit beyond which war becomes unsustainable?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already cost Moscow an estimated 1.2 million casualties—killed, wounded, or missing—yet the Kremlin shows no signs of halting its campaign, reports LRT. As losses mount and economic pressures grow, experts debate whether Russia has a breaking point where continuing the war becomes impossible.
According to Karolis Zikaras, a historian and analyst at Lithuania’s Strategic Communications Department, even authoritarian regimes like Russia’s face limits in prolonged conflicts. “We don’t know when or how, but Russia likely has a threshold where everything could collapse,” he said, comparing the current situation to Germany’s in World War I. “Initially, people thought sanctions would cripple Russia, but instead, its economy adapted. History shows that a breaking point is hard to see until it happens.”
Russia’s economy is under strain, but factors like the Hormuz Strait blockade and exemptions on Russian oil exports under former U.S. President Donald Trump’s sanctions have provided relief, allowing Moscow to boost revenue. Despite losing 116 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in April alone, the political elite remains united, and the regime appears stable for now.
Zikaras draws parallels with Germany’s capitulation in 1918. Though the country secured resources—including Ukrainian grain—after Russia’s Bolshevik revolution and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, its eventual collapse came when those resources ran out. “It’s like a terminal patient feeling better before death,” he explained. “Some Germans didn’t even understand why they lost.”
Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, a professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science, identifies three key factors that typically determine whether a struggling war effort continues: battlefield conditions, domestic political stability, and external support—or lack thereof. Economic hardship, human losses, and financial costs play critical roles, but authoritarian regimes can sustain conflicts longer by suppressing dissent and prioritizing regime survival over public opinion.
Vytautas Jonas Žukas, Lithuania’s former military chief, argues that while Russia’s resources are not infinite, its current economic difficulties and military setbacks have not yet fractured the political elite. For now, the regime maintains cohesion, but the question remains: how far can it push before reaching its own breaking point?