Armenia seeks closer ties with Europe amid balancing act with Russia

Armenia is preparing for two key summits next week that could strengthen its ties with Europe, as the country continues its cautious political distancing from Russia, reports LRT, citing analysts and officials.

The South Caucasus nation will host a meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) on May 4, attended by dozens of European leaders, followed by the first-ever Armenia-EU summit the next day. These events signal Yerevan’s intent to deepen cooperation with Brussels while maintaining its delicate balance between Western alignment and historical ties with Moscow.

Analysts describe Armenia’s current strategy—led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan—as a policy of “diversification,” seeking partnerships with both Russia and the West. “This is essentially Armenia trying to establish relations with the European Union,” said political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan. The country, home to three million people, signed a comprehensive partnership agreement with the EU in 2017, expanding collaboration in trade and other sectors. Last year, Armenia adopted legislation formally declaring its intention to apply for EU membership.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated during a March visit that “Armenia and the EU have never been this close.” However, Yerevan has yet to submit a formal application. Armenia remains a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), though it suspended its participation in the latter in 2024.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia in April that it “cannot be a member of both blocs by definition.” The decision to hold the EU summit in Yerevan is seen as a deliberate move to counter Russia’s narrative of influence, according to Sébastien Maillard, a special advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute. “It’s a way to show Vladimir Putin that these countries do not belong to him,” Maillard told AFP.

Public opinion in Armenia increasingly favors EU integration, with support for Russia waning. Yet many remain skeptical about the feasibility of EU membership and fear further provoking Moscow. “We all know Armenia won’t join the EU anytime soon—not today, not tomorrow, not in the near future. But closer ties could help us become less dependent on Russia,” said Manush Gevondian, a 58-year-old unemployed accountant. She added, “This shouldn’t happen too abruptly or turn Russia into an enemy.”

Analysts note that while Armenia is gradually distancing itself from Moscow—accusing Russia of meddling in its domestic politics—Moscow has little incentive to sever ties. Armenia remains Russia’s closest ally in the Caucasus, particularly as Georgia grapples with internal divisions over Russian influence and Azerbaijan strengthens its relationships with Europe and Turkey. “If Russia cuts economic ties with Armenia, it would lose its last lever of influence in the region,” Iskandaryan said.

For now, Armenia continues to navigate a precarious balance. “They’re trying to sit on two chairs at once,” said security analyst Olesia Vartanian.