Lithuanian authorities lack tools to accurately count protest participants

No Lithuanian institution—including those responsible for enforcing public order—systematically records or verifies the number of participants at large-scale protests, leaving media outlets to rely on estimates, LRT and the Baltic News Service (BNS) report.

Under Lithuanian law, municipal governments issue permits specifying maximum participant numbers for public gatherings, while police are tasked with ensuring compliance. However, police lack the technical means to count crowds precisely and instead assess numbers “by eye,” according to officials.

The issue resurfaced after a weekend protest in Vilnius against proposed amendments to public broadcaster LRT’s governance drew tens of thousands. BNS estimated around 30,000 attendees using AI-powered image analysis but acknowledged the method’s limitations for large crowds. “Counting smaller groups is manageable by estimating space occupancy, but tens of thousands require additional tools,” said BNS editor-in-chief Saulius Jakučionis.

Police declined to provide an official count, citing the absence of a “reliable methodology.” “We stopped disclosing numbers to prevent manipulation, as we can’t objectively verify them,” said Police Department spokesperson Ramūnas Matonis. He noted that while police have fined organizers for exceeding permitted crowd sizes, such cases are rare and based on clear visual evidence.

Vilnius police representative Julija Samorokovskaja confirmed that officers plan crowd-control measures based on permit figures but do not count participants. “Our role is maintaining public order, not headcounts,” she stated. Municipal authorities echoed this stance, deferring enforcement to police. Violations of the Assembly Law carry fines of €140–600.

Organizers often inflate expected attendance in permit applications, further complicating oversight, officials noted.