German analyst warns NATO may fail to respond if Russia attacks Estonia

A leading German security analyst has cautioned that NATO could fail to react even to a direct Russian attack on Estonia, citing US political shifts under former President Donald Trump as a key factor in weakening the alliance’s resolve.

Carlo Masala, a political scientist at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, warned in an interview with Lithuanian National Radio and Television (LRT) that Trump’s approach to Ukraine has emboldened Russia, reducing Western leverage. “Everything is actually getting worse,” Masala said during the Baltic Military Conference in Vilnius. “At the start of this year, the largest NATO partner threatened another NATO member with force to take its territory. That is the biggest blow to the credibility of Article 5.”

Masala’s comments follow his 2023 book, If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia, frustrated by stagnation in Ukraine, provokes NATO with a limited attack on Estonia—such as seizing the border town of Narva—betting that the alliance would not respond. He now argues the risk has grown due to Trump’s efforts to normalize relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Russia is winning—not on the battlefield, but politically,” Masala said. While Ukraine has conducted successful counteroffensives, he noted that US pressure on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russian terms amounts to “handing Putin a victory.” Trump’s administration has pushed Zelenskyy to withdraw from Donbas and accept pre-ceasefire demands, he claimed, while sanctions relief—particularly on Russian oil—has further strengthened Moscow’s position.

The analyst criticized Europe’s reliance on US-led negotiations, urging self-sufficiency in defense. “The main European goal is to keep the US engaged in talks,” he said. “But we should arm ourselves while trying to do that.” He pointed to stalled EU efforts, such as Hungary’s blockade of a €90 billion loan for Ukraine and slow progress in expanding arms production, as signs of insufficient political will.

Masala’s warnings come amid broader concerns about US commitment to Europe, as Washington’s focus shifts toward conflicts in the Middle East and signals potential troop reductions on the continent.