Belarusian fertiliser could become ‘American’ under potential US scheme

A US proposal to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash fertiliser producers—while maintaining European restrictions—has raised questions in Lithuania about whether American firms could rebrand and transport the products through the country, LRT reports.

US envoy for Belarus John Coale suggested in an interview with Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT that Belarusian potash should transit via Lithuania to reach Europe and the US. However, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Ruginienė stated that no official discussions on fertiliser transport have taken place between her government and Coale.

Lithuanian politicians acknowledge that Washington is not currently pressuring Vilnius to facilitate the transit, as EU sanctions on Belarus—including those on potash—remain in force until February 2027. Yet concerns persist that US demands could shift in the future.

“A scenario could emerge where Belarus isn’t involved, but Americans are—and then we’d be talking about the transit of ‘American’ fertiliser,” one Lithuanian politician familiar with the situation told LRT. “We need to consider what we’ll do in that case.”

Behind closed doors, officials speculate that US interests may establish an intermediary company in Belarus to purchase potash from state-owned Belaruskali, effectively converting it into an “American” product. Kaunas University of Technology economist E. Stankevičius noted that the US seeks greater competition in the potash market, where Canadian producers currently dominate pricing.

Foreign policy expert A. Januška advised Lithuania to remain calm and await the outcome of the 2024 US midterm elections, which could clarify whether Congress gains more influence over President Donald Trump’s administration. “No one says this openly, but there are theories—someone like Jared Kushner could get involved,” a second politician said, referring to Trump’s son-in-law and advisor, who has previously blended business and political ties.

A third source described the proposed scheme: US firms could set up a Belarus-based intermediary to buy Belaruskali potash, reclassifying it as American-owned and potentially shipping it via the shorter route through Klaipėda port. While the origin of this idea remains unclear, Lithuanian officials are discussing it in private circles.

“The chance that these sanctions won’t be extended in a year is real,” the source added. “But we shouldn’t focus only on fertiliser. If we see shifts in global politics, we need to stay ahead—addressing everything from Belarus’s Zapad military drills near our border to seized assets and political prisoners. Then, when the time comes, we can present our full range of interests.”