Lithuania must address air defence gaps as drone incidents rise, says military expert

A Lithuanian military analyst has warned that the country’s underfunded air defence systems leave it vulnerable to further drone incursions, after a suspected Ukrainian drone exploded in the Varėna district overnight, LRT reports.

The incident near Lake Lavyso was first reported by local residents rather than authorities, highlighting gaps in surveillance. Military analyst Egidijus Papečkys told LRT’s Svarbi valanda programme that the remote, forested location—unlike the more open terrain in Latvia and Estonia—made detection difficult.

“This was an area where almost no one could see anything except a few people,” Papečkys said. He stressed that Lithuania has long neglected investment in air defence, including both monitoring and interception capabilities. “Now we need time. Everyone needs those air defence measures—both surveillance and the means to shoot down threats. There will likely be more such incidents.”

The drone is believed to be one of several Ukrainian-operated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that strayed off course during strikes on Russian oil export hubs in the Leningrad region. Latvia and Estonia reported similar incursions overnight, with one drone detonating near a Latvian settlement and another damaging an Estonian power plant’s chimney.

While all three Baltic states attribute the incidents to Ukrainian drones gone astray, Papečkys doubted Kyiv would have time to notify allies of off-course UAVs amid active combat operations. “After all, this is war. There’s operational security—[Ukraine] likely wouldn’t have time to inform us about stray drones,” he said.

He called for stronger coordination with Ukraine to adjust flight paths and prevent future violations of Baltic airspace, noting that without Russia’s aggression, “these drones wouldn’t be flying here at all.” Lithuania’s government has already informed NATO allies of the Varėna incident.