drones remain a challenge for NATO states
Lithuania’s National Security Commission will review the circumstances of a drone that crashed and exploded in Varėna District on Monday, with experts warning that tracing its path remains difficult.
The incident occurred as the National Security Commission met to discuss the case, which officials suspect involved a drone that may have crossed the national border. Defence technology expert Andrius Vilkauskas, dean of the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Design at Kaunas University of Technology, told LRT RADIO that preliminary information is insufficient to confirm the drone’s origin or type.
“Initial reports suggest it could be a ‘Shahed’-type drone, but we should wait for more data before drawing conclusions,” Vilkauskas said. “Other models, such as the ‘Gerbera,’ could have a similar shape and size.”
Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas suggested on Tuesday morning that the drone was likely Ukrainian and may have strayed due to electronic warfare interference. Vilkauskas noted that if the drone had struck a residential property, structural damage would have been likely, though the extent would depend on location and occupancy.
“It is a fast-moving object with significant mass and velocity, so structural damage would be expected,” he said. “Whether there would be injuries depends entirely on where it landed and whether people were present.”
Tracking remains a challenge
Vilakauskas emphasised that determining the drone’s trajectory is difficult. While high-altitude flights can be detected by radar, low-flying drones require satellite surveillance, a capability Lithuania and most European states lack.
“This region must be under constant surveillance, but neither Lithuania nor other European countries have the necessary systems,” he said. “The U.S. does, but their focus is likely elsewhere. The big question is whether we will obtain full information and be able to trace the drone’s path.”
Broader security implications
Linas Kojala, director of the Centre for Geopolitics and Security Studies, described drone threats as a significant challenge, particularly for NATO’s eastern flank states. He noted that drones have fundamentally altered warfare and that ensuring security against them is both complex and costly.
“Drones are reshaping the nature of conflict, and achieving sterile security conditions is extremely difficult and expensive,” Kojala said. “New countermeasures are emerging, their costs are decreasing, and innovation is accelerating—primarily driven by Ukraine’s efforts to defend against aggression.”
While investigations will consider multiple scenarios, Kojala cautioned against premature conclusions that could heighten public anxiety. “Detailed investigations will be conducted, and the truth will emerge,” he said. “But in the current context, it is important not to rush to versions that could create additional tension.”
Vilakauskas suggested Lithuania could adopt affordable acoustic systems to detect low-flying drones in real time, calling for a gradual strengthening of detection capabilities.