Vseviov’s rise pushes Reinsalu to third in prime minister poll

Social Democratic Party candidate Jonatan Vseviov’s emergence has reshaped the contest among Estonia’s potential prime ministers, pushing Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu into third place, political scientist Tõnis Leht told ERR.

A poll on prime minister preferences by Norstat and the Institute for Societal Research found that 28% of respondents would like to see Centre Party leader Mihhail Kõlvart as prime minister, compared with 21% for Vseviov and 19% for Reinsalu.

Leht said Reinsalu’s fall to third place was directly linked to Vseviov being named the Social Democrats’ candidate. Between the October and November polls, Reinsalu’s support among Isamaa voters fell by 13 percentage points, Leht said, suggesting that some of the party’s own supporters do not consider him the best candidate for prime minister. Vseviov has also drawn potential supporters from the Reform Party and Parempoolsed, he added.

Leht said the Social Democrats’ leader, Lauri Läänemets, had previously received support of about 10% to 11% as a potential prime minister and had not been seen as a strong, credible candidate by either the party’s voters or the wider electorate. Vseviov’s candidacy, by contrast, appears to have broadened the party’s appeal: voters widely see him as someone who could be prime minister, and the party’s overall support has also risen noticeably, Leht said.

Leht said Kõlvart and the Centre Party had not been hurt by Vseviov’s entry into the race. Kõlvart’s growing popularity as a potential prime minister appears to track the party’s broader gains, which may include increased support among Estonian-speaking voters. The Centre Party has overtaken Isamaa in support in several polls, making Kõlvart’s prospects of competing for the premiership more credible to voters, Leht said.

Leht also pointed to overlap between the Centre Party and EKRE electorates, saying some EKRE supporters may consider Centre Party candidates if their own candidates are not strong enough. Isamaa, meanwhile, has a diverse support base that expanded sharply after the last parliamentary election. Leht said maintaining that broad coalition has been difficult, as the party has faced a prolonged decline in support in recent months.