Saks says Abu Dhabi talks unlikely to halt fighting

Talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States in Abu Dhabi are unlikely to stop the fighting, Estonian President’s security adviser Rainer Saks told ERR ahead of the meeting, which begins on Tuesday.

The representatives are expected to meet after a long gap. Saks said the key point to watch would be which issues are discussed and which are publicly identified as part of the talks.

Russia has said the discussions will focus on technical matters, including how to keep a ceasefire in force and prevent incidents from restarting hostilities. Previous trilateral talks have also covered prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children deported to Russia.

Neither Ukraine nor the United States has said that politically sensitive issues will be discussed, Saks said. The sides may exchange information on those subjects, but he does not expect negotiations on them.

Ceasefire arrangements could themselves become political, Saks said, because a truce would require agreement on how to enforce it. The talks may also address security guarantees for Ukraine, including the possible involvement of a third party and a military component.

Saks said Russia was seeking additional Ukrainian territory in exchange for ending hostilities and wanted direct influence over Ukraine’s political process.

He said the talks could still help launch a more stable diplomatic process towards peace. Their outcome may become clearer after the meeting, including whether the sides agree to hold further talks.