Kaju says Republicans face a long road back to the Senate

Republicans’ losses in traditionally Republican states could make regaining control of the US Senate unrealistic even in two or four years, political analyst Andreas Kaju told ERR. The party has dug itself a deep hole, he said, while the next two election cycles are likely to favour Democrats.

One-third of Senate seats are contested every two years. The states voting in the latest cycle were strongly favourable to Republicans, as most of the senators defending their seats were Republicans. Democrats nevertheless performed very well, Kaju said. In the next two elections, Democrats will mostly be defending seats in their own states, giving them a favourable map.

Voters who moved away from Republicans included Latinos and younger men, particularly working-class voters with less education. Kaju said all demographic groups had shifted towards Democrats compared with the previous election.

He described younger men who have switched between candidates over several election cycles as “Trump-Obama voters”. Many are dissatisfied and see little hope for the future, he said. Kaju added that this group could return to Republicans: voters in it have repeatedly changed sides while seeking dramatic solutions and a more promising future.

On immigration, Kaju said Americans across the political spectrum supported closing the southern border and reducing illegal crossings, which had reached three to four million a year at their peak. But many objected to seeing masked, armed law-enforcement officers with inadequate training shooting Americans in the streets. Even Republican voters in Kansas protested, he said.

Kaju said the public reaction to those actions had contributed to the problem for Republicans, even as the US electorate had become more conservative on immigration and many Americans approved of former President Donald Trump’s efforts to close the southern border.

Tags: US politics, US elections, Republican Party