Centre Party and Social Democrats gain as rivals lose support

The Centre Party and Social Democratic Party have gained support, while EKRE and the Reform Party have lost ground, according to a Norstat poll commissioned by the Institute of Societal Research and reported by ERR.

The Centre Party leads with 24.2% support among eligible voters, up 1.1 percentage points in a week and its highest level since July 2020. Isamaa is second at 23%, with its support virtually unchanged.

The Social Democratic Party is third with 17.4%. Its support has risen 2.7 percentage points over the past four weeks, reaching its highest level since August 2024.

EKRE has 12.8% support, down one percentage point in a week, while the Reform Party stands at 11.9%, a decline of 2.1 points over six weeks. Parempoolsed would also clear the electoral threshold, with 6% support. Eesti 200, a coalition party, has 1.3%.

The Koos party has 0.7% support, the Estonian Greens 0.6% and ERK 0.3%. Coalition parties have a combined 13.2% support, compared with 77.4% for opposition parties represented in parliament.

Based on the poll, political scientist Martin Mölder calculated that the Centre Party would win 27 seats in parliament, Isamaa 25, the Social Democrats 19, EKRE 13, the Reform Party 12 and Parempoolsed five.

The results cover polling conducted from October 5 to November 1 among 4,000 eligible voters in Estonia.