Isamaa trails Centre Party in polls by three firms

Isamaa fell behind the Centre Party in October polls by three polling firms, ERR reported, though two firms said the difference was within the margin of error.

Turu-uuringute has previously recorded the Centre Party ahead of Isamaa in January and May, and did so again in October. October polls by Emor and Norstat also put the Centre Party ahead.

Isamaa had topped Emor’s ratings since November 2023, but in October it was also overtaken by the Social Democratic Party. Norstat’s latest poll marked the first time in three years that Isamaa had fallen behind the Centre Party.

Emor and Norstat both described the gap as narrow and within the margin of statistical error. They cautioned that one month’s results are not enough to establish that the trend has definitively shifted in the Centre Party’s favour.

ERR’s comparison also includes an average of the three polling firms’ results, with the caveat that their surveys used different methods and were conducted partly at different times.