Reform Party support falls to 12.5 percent in Norstat poll

The Reform Party’s support has fallen by 1.5 percentage points over the past four weeks to 12.5 percent, according to a Norstat poll commissioned by the Institute of Social Research and reported by ERR.

Isamaa leads with 24 percent, followed by the Centre Party on 21.7 percent and the Social Democratic Party on 16.1 percent. Support for the three parties at the top of the rankings changed little over the past week. Isamaa is 1.3 percentage points ahead of the Centre Party, while the Social Democrats trail the Centre Party by 5.6 points.

EKRE has 14 percent support, the Reform Party 12.5 percent, Parempoolsed 6.9 percent and Eesti 200 1.4 percent. The Greens, which had considered joining Eesti 200, are supported by 0.6 percent of respondents.

The parties in the governing coalition have a combined 13.9 percent support, compared with 75.8 percent for the parliamentary opposition parties.

Based on the current poll results, political scientist Martin Mölder estimates that Isamaa would win 27 seats in parliament, the Centre Party 24, the Social Democrats 17, EKRE 14 and Parempoolsed six.

The aggregated results cover polling conducted from September 21 to October 18 among 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age.