Noorma calls Russian satellite manoeuvres an intimidation campaign

Russian satellites’ close approaches to other spacecraft are probably part of an intimidation campaign, University of Tartu space and defence technology professor Mart Noorma told ERR. International media reported on Monday that a Russian satellite had passed within about 100 metres of a US satellite.

Noorma said the distance itself was only a technical measure, but he viewed the manoeuvre as a clear declaration that Russia has the technical ability to destroy NATO radars. He said he did not expect the actions to lead to an actual war in space.

“They are showing that they can approach other satellites in space. Well, we can all do that,” Noorma said, adding that Estonia’s ESTCube-4 could also approach a satellite.

Noorma said satellites have become increasingly militarised over time. The Soviet Union developed capabilities to destroy adversaries’ satellites during the Cold War, he said. In recent years, Russian satellites have repeatedly moved into positions that, in Noorma’s view, would have no purpose for peaceful satellites. Their activities could involve intercepting communications or practising how to damage another satellite, he said. No kinetic attack in space has yet taken place.

Russia has repeatedly approached the Iceye-X36 radar satellite, made by Finnish company Iceye, Noorma said. Ukraine’s military also uses the company’s radar technology, though it is not clear whether it uses this particular satellite. A June report by the UK defence and security research organisation RUSI said four Russian satellites had changed their orbits to align with a satellite.

Noorma said the precise aim of the latest approach was difficult to determine, but that it was likely part of an intimidation campaign. He described the behaviour as irresponsible, while noting that the 1967 Outer Space Treaty does not allow countries to be barred from using space. Until a kinetic attack occurs, he said, other countries have no direct grounds to respond. An actual attack could be considered either a military act or a criminal act carried out before a declaration of war.