Low birth rates and early deaths deepen Latvia’s population decline

Low birth rates and premature deaths are continuing to shrink Latvia’s population, with demographic experts warning that the trends are unlikely to change in the coming years without long-term solutions, LSM reported.

Latvia recorded its lowest number of births in a century last year, according to the Central Statistical Bureau. Demographer Ilmārs Mežs said the number could fall to a new record each year. The generation now reaching potential parenthood is smaller because of low birth rates in the 1990s and later emigration. Families are also having children later, and women are older on average when they have their first child.

Latvia’s total fertility rate, which estimates the average number of children per woman, has fallen by about 26% in four years. It is well below the level needed for generational replacement, meaning the population is expected to keep shrinking and ageing.

Premature deaths also contribute to the decline. External causes, including traffic accidents and suicide, claim about 1,400 lives in Latvia each year, around 900 of them among people of working age. The issue was discussed at a meeting of the Demographic Affairs Council on Friday.

A deputy state secretary at the Health Ministry said external causes of death have a significant effect on life expectancy and the number of healthy years people live, particularly among children, young people and working-age adults.