Providus identifies three distinct voter turnout trends in Latvia

Latvia’s record-low turnout in the 15th parliamentary election reflects sharply different patterns in the suburbs, shrinking regions and diaspora, according to a Providus analysis reported by LSM. The analysis was written by Providus director Sanda Liepiņa and Ivo Rollis.

Turnout was 51.79%, with 806,641 people voting, 109,727 fewer than in 2022. The rate was also below the 54.56% recorded in 2018. Providus said the overall figure does not point to one large group of “missing” voters or a nationwide wave of voter apathy. Instead, it reflects very low turnout among diaspora voters, the fading of the unusually strong mobilisation seen in 2022, and a deeper decline in some ageing and shrinking regions.

Advance voting accounted for a larger share of eligible voters, rising from 4.1% in 2022 to 10.9% in 2026. But the overall turnout still fell, showing that voters changed how they cast their ballots while fewer people voted overall.

The largest long-term change is among voters abroad. The number of eligible voters registered overseas grew from about 135,000 in 2018 to 199,452 in 2026, while the number who voted fell from 31,946 to 23,196. Turnout abroad dropped from 23.7% to 11.6%, meaning about one in nine registered voters overseas cast a ballot in 2026.

Excluding voters abroad, turnout in Latvia was 57.5% in 2018, 64.5% in 2022 and 57.7% in 2026. The gap between turnout in Latvia and the official overall rate widened from about three percentage points to about six over eight years, partly reflecting the changing composition of the electorate.