Saks says moving Estonian forces east has little strategic impact

Estonia is moving some of its forces closer to the Russian border as it prepares for active defence, but the relocation will have limited strategic impact without stronger air defence, security expert Rainer Saks told ERR.

The 1st Infantry Brigade recently moved its headquarters and a staff company from Tapa to Jõhvi. A company is due to move from Jõhvi to Narva next year. The moves are part of preparations to begin defending Estonia from its border, brigade commander Tarmo Kundla said.

Saks said the relocations could make sense for military planning, but would not by themselves significantly affect Estonia’s strategic position. Forces remain vulnerable wherever they are stationed if air defence is inadequate, he said.

Defence Minister Martin Herem said air-defence capabilities were improving each month and that additional ammunition for existing weapons would arrive later this year. Estonia is also developing its ability to strike targets at long range.

Herem said Estonia has HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems and loitering attack munitions, which he described as similar to Russia’s Lancet. The unit operating the drones has been trained. Some HIMARS ammunition has arrived, but not missiles with a range of 300 kilometres.

Saks said Russia had been able to plan operations against Estonia while gathering forces near the border and using aircraft and missiles from close range. If Estonia could bring a 300-kilometre zone under fire control, he said, that would be a significant change.

The Financial Times reported on Monday on changes to Estonia’s defence planning. Saks said communicating plans for countermeasures to foreign media was important, as it signals to Russia and allies that Estonia’s defence forces are capable of fighting.