Estonia moves troops closer to Russia and builds strike capability

Estonia is moving forces closer to the Russian border and developing the ability to strike deep into neighbouring territory as it prepares for possible Russian aggression, ERR reported, citing the Financial Times.

Estonian military and intelligence leaders do not expect Moscow to seek a full-scale war with NATO in the next two years, the Financial Times reported. But they believe Russia is preparing for a possible future conflict with the Baltic country. Estonian officials are concerned about the risk of a limited incursion intended to test NATO’s mutual-defence commitment, saying neither Estonia nor NATO can currently credibly deter such a scenario.

Estonia, which has no air force of its own and relies on NATO to protect its airspace, has adopted an active-defence strategy. “We have to start at the border and win from the first battle,” Colonel Tarmo Kundla, commander of the First Brigade, told the newspaper.

The brigade, described by the Financial Times as Estonia’s main combat force, is being permanently relocated from Tapa, about 130 kilometres from the Russian border, to Jõhvi, around 50 kilometres away. New facilities are being built there. Estonia is also building a base in Narva that will accommodate up to 1,000 troops: 200 will be stationed there permanently, with space for another 800 in a crisis.

The government added the concept of active defence to its national defence policy in May, the newspaper reported. Since then, Estonia’s small, well-trained military has begun a broad reorganisation, including the permanent movement of elite units farther east.

Estonia is also changing the weapons it buys. It has signed contracts over the past year for nine US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M57 ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometres. Procurement of nine South Korean Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers is also under way.

Official figures cited by the newspaper show Estonia’s military spending is set to rise 42 per cent this year to 2.4 billion euros, equal to 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product. A senior Estonian military intelligence official told the Financial Times that the Baltic states face a critical period of one to four years to address the threat.

Estonian officials say the goal is to make aggression against the country unthinkable and keep enemy forces and the destruction of war away from Estonian territory. The Financial Times also reported that Russian state media regularly depicts Estonia as hostile and Russophobic, while the Kremlin has threatened Estonia, including with a nuclear attack if it were ever to host NATO nuclear weapons.