United List leads as six parties clear Latvia election threshold

An exit poll suggests six political forces may have cleared the 5% threshold to enter Latvia’s 15th Saeima, or parliament, with the United List receiving the most support, LSM reported.

The poll, conducted by LETA, LSM and Riga Stradiņš University with methodological support from the SKDS research centre, found that 35.6% of respondents backed the United List, which is represented by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs. Latvia First followed with 11.3%, and the Progressives with 11.1%.

The other parties that may have crossed the threshold are Sovereign Power/Alliance of New Latvians, with 10.8%; the National Alliance, with 8.7%; and New Unity, with 6.7%.

More than 6,500 voters were surveyed outside polling stations on Saturday, October 3. Thirty percent did not disclose their choice, the same share as four years ago.

The number of voters who withheld their choice rose significantly in Zemgale, where the Union of Greens and Farmers has traditionally performed well. The party may therefore have received more votes than respondents disclosed. Voters in Riga and Vidzeme were also slightly more likely than before to keep their choice private, while those in Kurzeme and Latgale were more forthcoming.

Overall, two-thirds of respondents were Latvian speakers, according to interviewers. In Latgale and Riga, however, nearly half of those who did not disclose their choice were Russian speakers.

Previous experience suggests that voters may be reluctant to disclose support for political forces with more radical positions on some issues. As a result, the largest differences between the poll and official results may involve parties traditionally backed by more Russian-speaking voters. In polling stations in Riga and Latgale, respondents most often named Sovereign Power/Alliance of New Latvians.