Fuel prices push Estonia’s annual inflation to three percent
Friday 2nd October 2026 on 08:01 in
Estonia
Consumer prices in Estonia rose three percent year on year in September and 0.5 percent from August, according to a preliminary estimate from Statistics Estonia reported by ERR. The agency will publish final September figures on October 7.
Rising petrol and diesel prices, linked to the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, were the main factor behind the annual increase, Statistics Estonia consumer price statistics manager Lauri Veski said.
Luminor chief economist Lenno Uusküla said the seasonally adjusted harmonised index of consumer prices rose 0.9 percent from August. Annual inflation accelerated from 1.3 percent in August to three percent in September, partly because last year’s 0.7 percent price fall dropped out of the comparison. He said the unusually low August rate was likely the lowest point, and that price growth would remain uneven.
Fuel prices rose quickly in Estonia in September after a cheaper period during the summer, Uusküla said. Diesel prices increased more than petrol prices because of supply difficulties. Food prices fell slightly during the month, which he attributed to the autumn harvest.
Uusküla noted that global oil prices were lower than their September average and trending down, though he cautioned that the decline might not be steady.
Bigbank chief economist Raul Eamets said he did not expect inflation to slow in the coming months, citing continued oil and gas supply concerns and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. He also pointed to Houthi activity in Yemen, which he said had blocked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.
Most cargo ships are now sailing around Africa to avoid Houthi attacks, Eamets said. He estimated that nearly a quarter of global maritime transport passes through the two straits, and said disruption there increases the cost of oil, gas and other goods shipped from Asia to Europe.
Eamets said higher energy demand as the weather cools could push prices up further, particularly for natural gas, pellets and firewood. Rising diesel costs could also feed through transport costs into consumer prices, he said.