Expert says Estonia’s absence from informal NATO meeting is no tragedy

Estonia’s absence from an informal meeting of selected NATO allies in November is no major setback because the format does not produce decisions, Tony Lawrence, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security, told ERR.

The meeting was initiated by Elbridge Colby, who leads policy at the Pentagon. A list published by Politico names six countries, out of NATO’s 32 allies. “Estonia has not been excluded, but simply is not on this list,” Lawrence said.

Defence Minister Martin Herem said the invited Nordic countries were interested in representing Baltic interests, as countries around the Baltic Sea could not manage without Baltic security.

A US contingent is expected to arrive in Estonia soon. HIMARS ammunition may also be arriving or may already be in the country, though not long-range ATACMS missiles. Asked what Estonia might raise with Colby, Herem said he did not know whether there was an issue that would require using this format or a back channel.

The meeting will take place in Poland, which is preparing to host US bases. Asked whether the talks could cover moving US forces around Europe, Lawrence said the deployments were a matter for bilateral agreements between the United States and individual countries, not NATO. He said the meeting was being presented as consultations among allies on NATO’s future, while the reasons for the US choice of participants remained unclear.