Isamaa and Centre Party draw level in Estonia poll

Support for Isamaa has fallen to 22.8 percent, putting it just ahead of the Centre Party at 22 percent, ERR reported, citing a Norstat poll commissioned by the Institute for Social Research.

Isamaa’s support dropped by 2.9 percentage points over the past four weeks. Its rating was last lower in November 2023. Centre Party support remained stable, narrowing the gap between the two parties.

The Social Democratic Party ranked third with 16 percent, its best result in two years. The Reform Party followed with 14 percent and EKRE with 13.1 percent. Support for Parempoolsed stood at 6.8 percent and Eesti 200 at 1.4 percent.

The Koos party was supported by 1 percent of respondents, the Greens by 0.7 percent and ERK by 0.4 percent.

Coalition parties had a combined support of 15.4 percent, while opposition parties represented in the Riigikogu, Estonia’s parliament, had 73.9 percent.

According to calculations by political scientist Martin Mölder, Isamaa and the Centre Party would no longer hold a majority between them on the basis of the current ratings. Isamaa would win 25 seats and the Centre Party 24. The Social Democrats would receive 17 seats, the Reform Party 15, EKRE 14 and Parempoolsed six.

Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa led with 26.5 percent, followed by the Social Democrats with 18.4 percent, the Reform Party with 16.1 percent, EKRE with 14.8 percent, the Centre Party with 11.6 percent and Parempoolsed with 8.8 percent.

Among respondents of other ethnicities, the Centre Party led with 70.9 percent. Support for the other parties was mostly between 4 percent and 5 percent.

Isamaa was the most popular party among male respondents, with 26.8 percent, followed by the Centre Party at 20.2 percent and EKRE at 18.6 percent. Among women, Isamaa ranked third with 19.3 percent, behind the Centre Party at 23.5 percent and the Social Democrats at 21.9 percent.

Centre Party leads in Tallinn

In Tallinn, the Centre Party led with 35.5 percent, followed by the Social Democrats with 23.2 percent. The Reform Party had 11.4 percent support in the capital, while Isamaa, whose member holds the mayor’s office, had 9.9 percent.

Isamaa’s support in Tallinn was nearly 18 percent in May. EKRE had 8 percent and Parempoolsed 6.8 percent in the latest poll.

The results cover the polling period from August 24 to September 19. Norstat surveyed 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age.