Herem says war preparation comes down to practical mathematics

War fears spreading through society may stem less from an actual threat than from people’s lack of knowledge, ERR reports. Martin Herem, a professor of future studies at the University of Tartu and a retired general, says authorities should provide residents with clear instructions on how to act in a crisis.

Herem made the comments in a public lecture titled “How to prepare for war?”, part of his lecture series “Broad national defence and Estonia’s future”. The lecture was held on September 17.

Drawing on Ukraine’s experience, Herem said society can adapt to crises remarkably well. In the city of Kherson, near the front line, people continue their daily routines despite the constant threat of drones. Residents attend yoga classes and even sort rubbish in parks. War can therefore eventually become a new everyday reality for people, he said.

However, concealing threats and avoiding difficult topics increases uncertainty, according to Herem. “Fear does not come from talking about war, but from a lack of knowledge. If a person sees only a threat but does not know the solutions, fear arises. If you describe the threat and offer solutions, the person starts thinking that it is not so bad and that we can prepare,” he said, citing a message from a psychologist.

Herem also said people often imagine heroic scenarios when preparing for a crisis. Dozens of citizens buy firearms in the hope of independently and fearlessly resisting an invader. But a weapon is of little use if its owner does not practise regularly at a shooting range.

“Today I dare say that well over 50 percent of gun owners do not visit a shooting range even once during a six-month period, even if they consider themselves keen shooting sportsmen,” said Herem, a former commander of the Defence Forces.

He stressed that a functioning civil society is the foundation of national defence. During a crisis, the state needs railway workers, electricians and teachers just as much as it needs soldiers at the front. Everyone must continue their everyday work so that the country’s rear does not collapse.

“Everyone is very keen to acquire weapons and start shooting from the windows, but that is a somewhat foolish and very simplified approach. If you are an actor, do theatre. If you are a writer, write,” Herem said.

A long wait before a possible attack also strains people’s nerves and the state budget. If the state calls tens of thousands of reservists into the field, normal economic activity comes to a halt.

“I have jokingly said that if we reach the orange zone and carry out mobilisation but Russia does not attack, then economically it would be better to attack ourselves. At least then we would know when it starts, and we would not waste food and air,” Herem said.