Estonia poll shows Isamaa lead shrinking as Reform support rises

Isamaa’s lead over the Centre Party has nearly disappeared as its support fell to 23.3 percent, while support for the Reform Party and Right-Wingers increased, ERR reported, citing a Norstat poll commissioned by the Institute of Social Research.

Isamaa’s latest result was its lowest since November 2023. Its support stood at 25.3 percent two weeks earlier, 26.4 percent in the second week of August and 27.3 percent in early June.

The Centre Party was supported by 22.2 percent of respondents, putting it almost level with Isamaa. The Centre Party’s support has remained stable throughout the year, generally at around 22 percent, meaning the narrowing gap has mainly resulted from Isamaa’s decline.

The results cover the four-week period from August 17 to September 13 and are based on responses from 4,000 voting-age Estonian citizens. In the results for the latest week alone, based on 1,000 respondents, the Centre Party led Isamaa, with support of 23.3 percent and 21.6 percent respectively.

In the four-week results, the Social Democratic Party remained in third place with 15.8 percent support, compared with 15.9 percent a week earlier and 13.5 percent in July.

The Reform Party’s support rose to 13.8 percent, its highest level since February. The increase came despite scandals in the defence sector that led to the resignation of the Reform Party’s defence minister.

The Estonian Conservative People’s Party received 12.1 percent support, while the Right-Wingers reached 7.5 percent, their highest result in Norstat’s history.

Estonia 200, which is also part of the governing coalition, remained at 1.6 percent for a fourth consecutive week, well below the electoral threshold.

The governing coalition parties were supported by a combined 15.4 percent of respondents, while opposition parties represented in the Riigikogu received 73.4 percent support.

Based on the latest results, Isamaa would win 26 seats in the Riigikogu, followed by the Centre Party with 25, the Social Democratic Party with 17, the Reform Party with 14, the Estonian Conservative People’s Party with 12 and the Right-Wingers with seven.