Herem says Russia could threaten Estonia with military force within a year

Russia could be capable of using an unspecified level of military force against Estonia within a year, future Defence Minister Martin Herem told ERR. He said Estonia must assess whether its preparations would be sufficient to neutralise such a force and accelerate preparations if necessary.

Herem rejected the suggestion that he was calling for a new threat assessment based on the assumption that Russia would attack Estonia within a year.

“I am not saying it will happen in a year,” Herem said. He noted that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had said such a possibility could arise three years after the war in Ukraine, while German and Danish intelligence services had suggested it could happen six months after the war.

Herem said Estonia’s current planning did not correspond to those assessments. The country must decide when a Russian attack could become possible, then determine whether it would be ready by that time or whether preparations would need to be accelerated, he said.

In developing a new threat assessment, the first question should be how quickly the war in Ukraine could end. Herem said the shortest possible timeframe could be six months, although the war was unlikely to end immediately.

He estimated that Russia would also need no more than six months to prepare for a military operation requiring Estonia to deploy its wartime defence force, including mobilisation.

“If it accumulates for six months the things it is using today, that is enough to do something against us with military force,” Herem said. Based on that scenario, Russia could use an unspecified level of military force against Estonia within a year.

Herem said Estonia now had three choices: hope such a situation did not arise without changing its preparations, accept that it would be very damaging but complete specific measures more quickly, or ensure that its existing preparations were sufficient to neutralise the potential force.

He said he did not want to confirm a one-year timeframe without first consulting intelligence services, which should determine whether such a scenario was possible.