Pevkur warns Herem against politicising Estonia’s intelligence assessments

Outgoing Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur has warned Defence Minister-designate Martin Herem not to seek a politically predetermined intelligence assessment of threats to Estonia, ERR reported.

Herem has said he wants to revise the wording of the government’s threat assessment because the war in Ukraine could end within six months. He said Russia could then need only another six months to use military force against Estonia.

“You cannot politically tell intelligence officials in advance to write a particular warning or preliminary assessment,” Pevkur said on the programme “Uudis+”. He said assessments must be based on objective, politically independent information gathered by professionals through intelligence collection and discussions with partners.

“If someone starts interfering politically, that is a very wrong path,” Pevkur said, adding that he hoped there would be no political pressure on intelligence officials to describe the situation beyond Estonia’s borders in a particular way.

In an interview with ERR, Herem said Russia could use an unspecified amount of military force against Estonia within a year. He said Estonia first needed to consider how quickly the war in Ukraine could end and whether its preparations would be sufficient to neutralise that force.

Pevkur also said Herem would have to address problems identified by the National Audit Office in the Defence Forces, since the criticism concerned a period when Herem was commander of the Defence Forces. He said the accounting of military supplies and assets needed significant improvement and urged Herem to treat the audit report as more than an accounting issue.

Regarding the departure of Defence Ministry Chancellor Kaimo Kuusk, Pevkur said the next six to eight months would be extremely critical because Russia was expected to engage in “soft” interference in elections in several European countries. He said the ministry could not risk a situation in which the future defence minister and the current chancellor did not work well together.

“In Estonia’s security interests, the Defence Ministry’s leadership must function, and that is possible only when the chancellor and the minister work in step,” Pevkur said.