Latvia’s population decline demands more than birth benefits

Latvia’s falling birth rate and high mortality are driving a population decline that cannot be solved by benefits alone, LSM reported in an article by Laine Skvorcova, an investigative journalist with LTV’s De facto programme.

The article identifies a demographic chain reaction, a second demographic transition, later pregnancy planning, two target groups for encouraging births and psychological support during in vitro fertilisation treatment as key issues. It also notes that financial support remains the main focus of demographic policy, while single-parent and large families face a high risk of poverty and many people die prematurely.

A demographic chain reaction

Demographic changes affect all other areas of society. A smaller population means less economic activity, while increasingly empty regions leave infrastructure underused. Schools are being converted into boarding homes.

As society ages, pressure on healthcare and the pension system is also increasing. Latvia’s demographic situation has been deteriorating for a long time, with fewer people born each year than die. Immigration is not compensating for the population decline.

Eurostat forecasts that Latvia will have the largest population decrease in the European Union this century. Latvia had 1.86 million residents last year. According to the forecasts, the population will fall to 1.54 million by 2050 and to 1.23 million by the end of the century.

Calls for controlled immigration

Zane Vārpiņa, a demographer and associate researcher at the Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, said an effective demographic strategy for Latvia was impossible without an immigration policy.

“We are absolutely and unequivocally talking only about controlled immigration. We need to start looking at this rationally and think about which areas of the economy need workers. Then we need to understand how to attract such people,” Vārpiņa said.

Oļegs Krasnopjorovs, an economist at the Bank of Latvia, also supports this view. He said Latvia needed to find a way to attract “creative people who would come here with their ideas and attract investment”.

Latvia is currently struggling to attract such talent and faces competition from the United States, Western Europe and Germany, the article said.