Experts warn Russian sabotage across Europe is coordinated

Russian sabotage operations in Europe are not isolated incidents, experts told LRT. They said Europe is already at the centre of a war involving sabotage, cyberattacks, drones and disinformation, but Europe and NATO have so far responded mainly by reacting to Russia’s actions and seeking to de-escalate them.

The issue was discussed on LRT Television’s programme LRT Forum, which examined whether the incidents represented isolated events or a coordinated Kremlin campaign, how Europe should respond and what the new security reality means for Lithuania.

“We are at the centre of a war”

Defence expert Giedrimas Jeglinskas said various Russian sabotage operations were not isolated cases. Lithuanian and NATO intelligence agencies had been warning about them for several years, he said, while the number and intensity of such attacks had recently increased.

According to Jeglinskas, Russia may be seeking to create confusion in Europe because it is not winning the war it started in Ukraine.

“Europe is already in that war. I would not want to use a word such as hybrid, but the war is taking place and various tools are being used, including sabotage and subversion. Cyberattacks are happening every day, and people are constantly being targeted with information attacks. We are at the centre of a war,” Jeglinskas said.

Retired Colonel Gintaras Bagdonas said official German institutions had also counted hundreds of Russian sabotage cases.

On August 4, a drone loaded with explosives was found near several Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig Halle Airport. Germany said Russia was responsible.

“The Leipzig incident is condemned, but the next day there was an attack on electricity transformers. This is happening not only in Germany, but in all countries, including ours,” Bagdonas said.

Russia seeks to undermine support for Ukraine

Margarita Šešelgytė, director of Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science, said Russia was trying to make its defeat in Ukraine less painful or turn it into a victory.

“Support for Ukraine and the unity of European countries in supporting Ukraine are obstacles for Russia. Russia therefore tries to attack unity within the European Union and within individual countries,” Šešelgytė said.

She said Russia sought to support or give a platform to radical forces that questioned whether Ukraine should continue receiving support and whether defence spending should increase.

According to Šešelgytė, Russia identifies the weak points of other countries and targets them.

“When waging a war, including a hybrid war, trust in institutions is very important. If you destroy trust in institutions, you open what is practically a direct path to defeat,” she said.

Experts call for a more proactive response

Bagdonas said Russia had many tools with which to fight NATO, while European countries were not acting proactively.

“We are not proactive, but reactive. We respond to events,” he said.

Jeglinskas said institutions had to be prepared for various unexpected developments because it was impossible to know what kind of attack might come next.

Victor Grabauskas, commander of Lithuania’s Public Security Service, said the country’s institutions were cooperating smoothly. He cited close cooperation with the Lithuanian Armed Forces and the State Border Guard Service.

Šešelgytė said sabotage operations were worthwhile for Russia because they were relatively inexpensive but could have a significant effect. She compared the method with tactics used by terrorist organisations.

The programme’s participants agreed that NATO and European countries were unlikely to respond forcefully to Russia’s actions. They said Europe was not prepared to launch a cyberattack against Russia.