Drone warfare forces Lithuania to rethink military strategy

Lithuania is adapting too slowly to the technological changes transforming warfare, participants in a discussion reported by LRT said, warning that existing military practices may leave troops vulnerable to drones.

The debate has intensified as Lithuania buys tanks, with the issue often framed as a choice between investing in armoured vehicles or putting all the money into drones. But the wider question is whether Lithuania is keeping pace with a fundamental shift in military technology.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, wrote in 2023 that the war in Ukraine was taking place where old doctrine was colliding with new weapons, comparing the situation with the First World War.

Artūras Plokšto, a lecturer at the Military Academy, made a similar comparison during the discussion “Tanks or drones?” at the “Būtent!” discussion festival. He recalled how machine guns, trenches, howitzers and radio communications appeared during the 1904 Russo-Japanese War, while European generals dismissed the conflict as a fight between “savages” and believed cavalry would resolve future wars quickly.

“Then the First World War began, and it turned out that this was not funny at all: 11 million soldiers and 13 million civilians died,” Plokšto said.

He said the importance of drones had once been publicly associated, including by Lithuanian officers, with the reality of less developed armies in Ukraine. But their influence can now be seen worldwide. According to Plokšto, Iran has used inexpensive drones to destroy costly US bases and infrastructure, while US allies in Lebanon have inflicted serious blows on the Israeli military.

“Israel long saw itself as the most technologically advanced army in the world and perhaps became somewhat complacent at those heights. When deaths began, including among lieutenant colonels, a scandal erupted: why do we have nothing?” Plokšto said.

He added that Israeli studies on the issue had been written long ago, but had not received an adequate response. “The situation is clearly the same here, too, but the reaction is insufficient,” he said.

Ernestas, a Lithuanian volunteer serving in Ukraine as an infantryman and drone pilot, shared his observations from the front. He said the level of the Lithuanian armed forces had improved, but that understanding at platoon and squad level remained inadequate.

“A simple understanding is that many people and much equipment simply cannot be in a forest or field because of the basic threat from drones,” he said. “All those beautiful pictures from Lithuanian armed forces exercises are just beautiful pictures and do not correspond to modern warfare.”

Plokšto again pointed to the First World War, saying technological change had cost many lives because armies were slow to adjust. He recalled that France began the war with red trousers, which made soldiers easy targets, and only changed them after suffering enormous losses.

The Lithuanian armed forces announced in May that they had established a drone unit using the historic ANBO abbreviation. The unit brings together different formations working with drone technologies.

“Everything comes down to innovation and the speed of the forces themselves. We must be faster than the enemy, otherwise the enemy will destroy us with the precision weapons it has,” Plokšto said.

He acknowledged that changes were taking place in Lithuania but said ideas were spreading upwards too slowly. “Earlier or later, I imagine, they will reach the top,” he said.

Ovidijus Kuzminas, commander of the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union Antanas Gustaitis 1031st Unmanned Aircraft Company, criticised the country’s bureaucratic barriers.

“We have placed a bureaucratic burden on our heads, live entirely under peacetime conditions and are not trying to make these processes different. We are not trying to change the legal norms and laws that would unlock this and allow us to move faster,” he said.