Climatologist forecasts wetter autumn for Lithuania

Lithuania’s autumn may be wetter than usual, while its average temperature is expected to exceed the climate norm by up to one degree Celsius, climatologist Gintautas Stankūnavičius told ELTA, according to LRT.

Stankūnavičius, a professor in the Department of Hydrology and Climatology at Vilnius University, said rising average temperatures could make some extreme weather events more frequent and intense, including exceptionally heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, hail, squalls and tornadoes.

He said the storm that hit Lithuania at the end of August was not in itself a result of climate change. However, climate change could create more favourable conditions for extreme weather to occur more often and with greater intensity.

“Rising air temperatures, best reflected in the increasing surface temperature of the global ocean, will also lead to greater evaporation and more frequent advection of very moist air masses into the extratropics,” Stankūnavičius said.

As a result, Lithuania could see more rare but extremely intense rainfall capable of causing flash floods and flooding in agricultural and urban areas. Rising temperatures could also contribute to the development of intense thunderstorms, hail, squalls and tornadoes, he said.

More attention needed for natural areas

Stankūnavičius said it was impossible to be fully prepared for every extreme natural event, but some measures could be implemented relatively quickly.

He urged Lithuania to pay more attention to forests, wetlands, natural meadows and bodies of water. He also called for an end to clear-cutting, saying it was a major problem.

According to the climatologist, old-growth forests, large wetland areas and natural meadows help regulate moisture exchange by reducing the impact of droughts, mitigating floods and storing carbon dioxide.

He also suggested restoring natural features to canalised sections of rivers and streams, reducing the area of cultivated fields, dividing them with green zones, abandoning monocultures and increasing green spaces in cities.

Summer close to normal

Stankūnavičius said this summer in Lithuania was fairly typical, especially compared with Western and Central Europe, where intense heatwaves and droughts were recorded.

However, he said Lithuania could also face similar conditions in the future as average temperatures rise, although their intensity and scale in the region would probably be smaller.

Autumn may be warmer and wetter

The climatologist stressed that the reliability of long-range weather forecasts was limited. Current models suggest that September will be close to the climate norm but probably wetter than usual.

October is forecast to be warmer and drier, at least during the first half of the month.

The average temperature for the whole autumn is expected to be above the climate norm, although the difference should not exceed 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius, Stankūnavičius said.

He said it was still too early to discuss the coming winter, but some signals suggested it could be warmer than the long-term norm in the Baltic region and almost all of Europe. One such factor is the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, whose effects in Europe emerge with a considerable delay.

The August 22 storm brought down trees in many parts of Lithuania, killed one person and injured four others. At its peak, electricity supplies were disrupted for more than 268,000 ESO customers, and more than 11,000 faults were recorded in the electricity network.

The government declared a state-level emergency because of the storm’s consequences and the losses suffered by farmers.