Social Democrats close gap on Centre Party in Emor poll

The Social Democratic Party’s support rose to 18 percent in August, bringing it within one percentage point of the Centre Party, which lost support among Estonian respondents, ERR reported, citing an Emor nationwide poll.

Isamaa led the party rankings with 26 percent, its strongest result since January. The Centre Party was supported by 19 percent of respondents, down from 22 percent in June and 20 percent in July.

The Social Democrats’ support increased from 14 percent in July. The party’s rating improved particularly among respondents aged 35 and under.

Emor research expert Aivar Voog said the presidential election may have influenced the changes. The Social Democrats were the first party to clearly back Ülle Madise, described in the survey analysis as the most popular candidate among the public, while the Centre Party supported Tiit Land, who was considerably less popular.

“In addition, the Centre Party has been overshadowed by Isamaa in Tallinn in its communications,” Voog said. He added that the Social Democrats’ high support had been unstable, typically lasting two or three months before falling again, unlike Isamaa’s more stable rating.

The Reform Party and EKRE ranked fourth and fifth in August, with 13 percent and 12 percent respectively. Both parties had 14 percent support in July.

The Parempoolsed party remained at seven percent for the second consecutive month, below its nine percent rating in May and June. Support for Eesti 200, which is part of the governing coalition, rose to three percent from two percent in July. The Koos party received two percent and the Greens one percent, while support for ERK and the Left Alliance was below one percent.

Twenty-seven percent of respondents did not name a preference, up from 25 percent in July and 23 percent in June.

When respondents without a preference were included, support stood at 18.4 percent for Isamaa, 13.4 percent for the Centre Party, 13.1 percent for the Social Democrats, 9.1 percent for the Reform Party, 8.3 percent for EKRE, 5.4 percent for Parempoolsed, 1.9 percent for Eesti 200 and 1.1 percent for the Greens.

Centre Party loses support among Estonians

Among ethnic Estonian respondents, Isamaa led with 30 percent, followed by the Social Democrats with 21 percent, the Reform Party with 14 percent and EKRE with 13 percent. Parempoolsed and the Centre Party each had eight percent, while Eesti 200 had three percent and the Greens two percent.

The Centre Party remained clearly ahead among respondents of other nationalities, with 67 percent support, up from 63 percent in July. Koos received nine percent, the Social Democrats six percent, Isamaa and the Reform Party five percent each, and EKRE four percent.

Social Democrats gain in Tallinn

The Centre Party was the most popular choice among Tallinn voters, with 31 percent support. The Social Democrats rose firmly into second place at 24 percent, up from 17 percent in July. The Reform Party ranked third with 12 percent.

Isamaa recorded the largest monthly decline among Tallinn voters, falling to 10 percent from 17 percent in July. EKRE had eight percent support in the capital and Parempoolsed seven percent.

The Centre Party was also the most popular choice among respondents in Ida-Viru County, with 58 percent support. Isamaa led in all other regions of Estonia.

The Social Democrats were the most popular party among respondents aged 18 to 24, with 44 percent support, and among those aged 25 to 34, with 34 percent.