Poll shows Ülle Madise leads Estonia’s presidential candidates

Estonia’s Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise is the most popular choice among the presidential candidates proposed so far, according to an Emor poll commissioned by ERR. Madise was the preferred candidate among voters of every political party except EKRE.

The nationwide survey of 1,141 respondents, conducted from August 12 to 19, found that 35 percent would like to see Madise become president. The second most common response, chosen by 18 percent, was that respondents could not say.

Tiit Land and Mart Helme followed with 14 percent and 12 percent support, respectively. Six percent would prefer Jonatan Vseviov as president, while Maive Rute and Indrek Laul each received two percent. Another 12 percent selected “someone else”, spontaneously naming candidates including Alar Karis, Marina Kaljurand and Hannes Hanso.

Support for Madise was higher among ethnic Estonian respondents, reaching 43 percent. Land followed with 16 percent, Helme with 12 percent and Vseviov with seven percent. Nine percent of ethnic Estonian respondents could not name a preference.

Among respondents of other ethnic backgrounds, 35 percent could not say whom they preferred as Estonia’s next president. Madise received 20 percent support in this group, followed by Helme with 11 percent, Land with nine percent and Vseviov with four percent.

Madise leads among most party supporters

Madise was the most popular choice among voters of all parties except EKRE. Her support was highest among Reform Party voters, at 65 percent. She was also the clear favourite among Social Democratic Party voters, at 52 percent, and Isamaa voters, at 48 percent.

Madise was supported by 57 percent of Parempoolsed voters and 42 percent of Eesti 200 voters.

She was also, by a narrow margin, the leading choice among Centre Party voters. Twenty-two percent of Centre Party voters preferred Madise, compared with 20 percent who preferred Land. A further 21 percent could not name a preference, while 20 percent would choose someone else.

Land’s strongest support among party voters came from Parempoolsed, a party not represented in parliament, at 23 percent. He received 20 percent support among both Isamaa and Centre Party voters. His support was lowest among EKRE voters, at six percent, and among Social Democratic Party and Eesti 200 voters, at 10 percent each.

Helme was the clear favourite among EKRE voters, 75 percent of whom would like to see him become president. Madise received eight percent support in this group and Land six percent.

Vseviov was the second most popular choice among Eesti 200 voters, with 20 percent support.

Madise more popular among women and older voters

Madise was more popular among women than men, with 39 percent of women and 31 percent of men supporting her. Land was preferred by 15 percent of men and 12 percent of women. Helme was supported by 15 percent of men and nine percent of women.

Madise was the preferred candidate in every age group. Her support was highest among the youngest respondents, aged 16 to 24, at 50 percent, and among the oldest respondents, aged 75 and over, at 44 percent.