Reinsalu and Kõlvart tied in Norstat prime minister poll
Friday 21st August 2026 on 06:00 in
Estonia
Isamaa chairman Urmas Reinsalu and Centre Party leader Mihhail Kõlvart are almost equally preferred as Estonia’s next prime minister, ERR reported, citing an August poll by the Institute of Social Research and Norstat Estonia.
About 25 percent of respondents preferred Reinsalu and 24 percent Kõlvart. The difference between them was within one percentage point.
Martin Helme, chairman of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia, was preferred by 16 percent of respondents. Lavly Perling, leader of the Parempoolsed party, received 12 percent, followed by Reform Party chairman Kristen Michal with 10 percent, Social Democratic Party chairman Lauri Läänemets with 9 percent and Estonia 200 leader Kristina Kallas with 6 percent.
Norstat said the share of respondents preferring Reinsalu and Kõlvart was practically equal. Support for Helme fell from 14 percent in July, but there were no major month-on-month changes in prime ministerial preferences.
Among their respective party supporters, Perling was the most popular choice among Parempoolsed supporters, with 80 percent, followed by Reinsalu among Isamaa supporters with 76 percent, Kõlvart among Centre Party supporters with 75 percent, Helme among Conservative People’s Party supporters with 74 percent, Michal among Reform Party supporters with 60 percent and Läänemets among Social Democratic Party supporters with 55 percent.
Respondents were also asked to choose between pairs of candidates. The pairs were based on the two most popular candidates in the previous month’s poll and the incumbent prime minister.
In a choice between Reinsalu and Michal, 51 percent preferred Reinsalu and 24 percent Michal, while 24 percent said they could not say.
Between Kõlvart and Michal, 45 percent preferred Kõlvart and 33 percent Michal. A total of 22 percent were undecided.
Between Reinsalu and Kõlvart, 51 percent preferred Reinsalu and 32 percent Kõlvart. A total of 17 percent were undecided.
Norstat conducted the poll from August 10 to 15 among 1,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and over. The survey used a mixed method of telephone and online interviews, with telephone respondents making up the clear majority. The sample was weighted to reflect the proportional distribution of eligible voters according to key sociodemographic characteristics.