Births in Lithuania fall as emigration shrinks young population

Fewer children are being born in Lithuania as the number of women of reproductive age declines, women postpone having their first child and emigration takes young families abroad, LRT reported.

During the first seven months of this year, 9,618 children were born to permanent residents of Lithuania, 5.4 percent fewer than during the same period last year. The country registered 1,900 fewer births in the first half of the year than in 2025.

Violeta Fikert, an adviser at the State Data Agency’s Division of Demographic and Social Statistics, said the final figures would be assessed after the end of the year, when all births had been recorded. However, she said the overall trend remained clear and the second half of the year was unlikely to change it substantially.

“People’s decision to have children depends on their personal reasons and circumstances. There are no significant trends suggesting that people choose to give birth at the beginning or later in the year,” Fikert said.

Women are also having their first child at an increasingly older age. The average age of women giving birth for the first time was about 28 in 2021 and is now approaching 29. At the same time, the number of women of reproductive age is falling.

Most children born in Lithuania are children of Lithuanian citizens. Family structures are gradually changing, however, with more children being born to unmarried parents. Their share has increased by about two percentage points in recent years, although most children are still born within marriage, Fikert said.

Dovilė Krupickaitė, a professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of Geosciences, said declining birth rates were not unique to Lithuania but were linked to urbanisation and broader changes in society.

“Lithuania is not exceptional in this respect. This is a consequence of our entire civilisation and, first and foremost, urbanisation. Birth rates have been declining since the late 1970s, with fewer children being born in urbanised countries,” Krupickaitė said.

Lithuania’s birth rate fell below the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman at the end of the 20th century. In 1995, it stood at 1.5 children per woman.

Krupickaitė said the changes could also be linked to how people communicate, including the use of smartphones, the internet and remote interaction, which she said did not in itself create conditions for children to be born.

Lithuania’s demographic situation is further complicated by the population’s age structure and emigration. Older people make up an increasingly large share of the population, while young people who emigrate may take potential future children with them, with those children then born elsewhere, the professor said.

The demographic situation is therefore unlikely to improve on its own in the coming years, as a smaller generation born after 1995 reaches the age when people typically start families.

Krupickaitė also questioned whether financial incentives alone could significantly change demographic trends. She noted that even in Scandinavian countries known for generous social policies, the birth rate had not reached the target of 2.1 children per woman.