Latvian governments repeated key promises for 17 years, analysis finds

Latvian governments have repeatedly promised improvements in the economy, healthcare and education without resolving many of the same problems, according to an analysis by Re:Baltica published by LSM.

The analysis examined government declarations and action plans from the past 17 years, as political parties again make broad promises ahead of Saeima elections. Re:Baltica used the NotebookLM artificial intelligence tool to analyse the documents quantitatively, then checked and refined the results.

The period was chosen because Valdis Dombrovskis’s first government in 2009 marked a new stage in Latvia’s development following a severe economic crisis. At the time, the state rescued Parex, a bank, to preserve the banking system, dismissed many public-sector employees, closed schools and cut salaries and pensions. Thousands of people emigrated after being unable to repay their mortgages.

Almost all governments until the most recent change were led by Vienotība, apart from the three years when Māris Kučinskis, then representing the Union of Greens and Farmers and now representing the United List, was prime minister.

Re:Baltica selected the economy, including the cost of living, healthcare and education for its analysis. A study by the LaSER think tank on Latvia’s political system found that these are among the issues residents consider most important.

“Although the most important problem at a particular moment changes over time, society’s agenda since 2005 has focused on a relatively narrow range of topics. The cost of living, the country’s economic situation and healthcare recur most often,” the study says.

Education was included because of its importance and because every government has promised reforms and solutions to problems that have remained unresolved for years.

Education promises caught between voters and need

“These promises balance what is economically necessary with what voters will understand,” said Zanda Rubene, a professor at the University of Latvia.

One example is the reorganisation of the school network, a goal included in the declarations of every government analysed.

“Everyone understands, rationally and financially, that it needs to be put in order. There are fewer children and many buildings. But people do not want schools to be closed. There are emotions, traditions and the community,” Rubene said. “And so we have promised for 17 years to put the school network in order.”