Jüristo: It is too late to replace Michal before elections

Reform Party is facing internal tensions, but there is too little time left before the elections to replace Prime Minister Kristen Michal, Tarmo Jüristo, head of the Liberal Citizen Foundation, told ERR’s Vikerhommik programme.

Jüristo said recent events, including Meelis Kiili’s departure from the party, had challenged claims that Reform Party was a unified team.

“If we look at what has happened in the past 24 or 48 hours, it seems the party was not entirely united after all. There are certainly tensions, and they are clearly visible,” Jüristo said.

He also referred to the earlier departure of Pärtel-Peeter Pere, who openly discussed a range of issues and pointed to the same tensions and questions later raised by Kiili.

Jüristo said such tensions were natural given the party’s current position and prospects. However, he considered replacing Michal at this stage extremely unlikely and risky.

“For someone inside Reform Party to challenge Michal and force him out seven months before the elections would, honestly, be too late. Whoever it was would take a very substantial risk by going into the elections in this situation,” Jüristo said.

He added that Reform Party’s current prospects were so poor that it would be essentially impossible for the party to win, regardless of who led it.

Kersna seen as possible replacement

Jüristo said the list of potential new leaders would not be long. Liina Kersna has been mentioned as one possible replacement.

He said Hanno Pevkur had already led Reform Party once, but many people remembered that period and might not see him as a new option because his leadership had not turned out as hoped.

Urmas Paet was another well-known name, Jüristo said, although he did not know whether Paet had the ambition to lead the party.

Jüristo called speculation about possible names “completely pointless”, saying that even if a replacement were found, it would be difficult to expect anything substantially new from a leadership change in the current situation.

More party switches possible

Jüristo said he considered it likely that more politicians would change parties at the beginning of autumn.

He said people who were considering moving were more likely to come from Eesti 200 and Reform Party than from Isamaa, whose members currently had less reason to leave.

Jüristo said it was difficult to predict whether or when anyone would make such a decision, but added that the deadline was approaching.

“Put figuratively, the posters are slowly going to print. If someone moves elsewhere, the electoral lists of the other parties will also start to be finalised, so there is not much time left to decide,” he said.