Kaunas defends public warnings over possible Russian provocations

Lithuania must inform the public about possible Russian provocations rather than frighten it, Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said on Monday, according to LRT.

Kaunas said the purpose of the warnings was to ensure people knew how to respond to air-raid alerts, where shelters were located and how to behave in different situations. He advised residents to avoid windows and move to areas protected by two walls.

“Information is provided not to frighten society, but to inform it so that people do not react carelessly,” Kaunas told LRT Radio. He said Russia was using possible provocations to intimidate the public and weaken NATO countries’ support for Ukraine.

Kaunas was responding to comments by Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the opposition Homeland Union Lithuanian Christian Democrats. Kasčiūnas said that if such warnings were issued too often, the public could become tired of them and fail to take them seriously when necessary.

Kaunas said US intelligence, Polish officials and other countries had also been discussing the possible threats for more than a month. He said Lithuania was openly explaining that Russia was considering ways to intimidate people and weaken NATO countries’ support for Ukraine.

Intelligence on possible provocations

Last week, Kaunas said Lithuanian intelligence had information that Russia was considering possible provocations in the Baltic region. He stressed that no decision had been made and that there was no specific date.

According to the minister, the Kremlin was considering attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region and could potentially use Ukrainian drones for such operations. He described this as a possible false flag operation, in which one country carries out an action while creating the impression that another country was responsible.

Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius sought to reassure the public on Thursday, saying the state was preparing for possible scenarios. He told journalists that the threat level had not changed drastically.

At the end of July, Lithuania announced that it had strengthened security around strategic facilities indefinitely following reports of possible Russian operations against critical infrastructure in the Baltic states. The facilities include the liquefied natural gas terminal in Klaipėda, the LitPol Link electricity connection with Poland at a substation in Alytus, a transformer substation in Alytus District and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.

ELTA reported that airspace violations had been recorded in the Baltic states and Finland for several months after Russian forces diverted Ukrainian drones from their course. The Kremlin has accused the Baltic states of allowing their territory to be used for Ukrainian military operations.

Kaunas said the airspace violations had stopped because Ukraine was attacking targets deeper inside Russia. He said drones that had previously fallen in Lithuania were Ukrainian aircraft affected by Russian electronic warfare systems, while adding that this did not rule out a future false flag provocation by Russia.