Ministry orders forecast to plan Estonia’s upper secondary school places

Estonia’s Ministry of Education will commission a nationwide forecast of future upper secondary school places, with a new overview of student numbers and school needs due next year, ERR reported.

The ministry said the study does not mean a decision has already been made to reorganise the upper secondary school network.

The last nationwide forecast of student numbers and modelling of the school network dates from 2014. The ministry says it is no longer up to date because birth rates have declined, the population has become more concentrated in cities, particularly Harju County, student migration has increased and education has become compulsory until the age of 18.

“An important basis for previous decisions has been the analysis of Estonia’s primary and upper secondary school network completed in 2014, as well as separate analyses conducted to reorganise the school network in individual settlements. Therefore, a new nationwide forecast using a comparable methodology is needed,” Indrek Riisaar, head of the ministry’s education infrastructure and school network department, told ERR.

Local governments have also commissioned student forecasts to prepare education development plans, but these have used different methodologies and do not provide a comparable overall picture.

The ministry plans to forecast the number of basic school graduates and upper secondary students from 2030 to 2050, as well as where general upper secondary education places will be needed in the future.

The forecast will be prepared by local government area for basic school students, while the upper secondary student forecast will use three scenarios. The ministry will then model an optimal upper secondary school network and compare it with the existing network.

The Ministry of Education and Research is simultaneously assessing the need for study places in vocational education institutions.

“The results will be used in policymaking related to the upper secondary school network and to assess the effects of the planned transfer of responsibility for secondary education to the state from 2035,” Riisaar said.

He stressed that commissioning the study did not mean that a specific decision to reorganise the upper secondary school network had been made.

“The study must provide the knowledge needed to make future decisions based on data: where study places may be in short supply, where the number of students may decline, and where exceptions or new solutions may need to be considered,” Riisaar said.

ERR reported in late July that many basic school graduates did not know where they could continue their education because they were still waiting for invitations to study or were retaking tests and interviews during the ongoing admissions process. Concerns about upper secondary school places have been repeatedly reported in the media this summer.

Riisaar said the ministry was not commissioning the study to resolve the issue for a single admissions year. “This year’s discussion about the availability of upper secondary school places shows why the planning of study places must be accurate and take a long-term view,” he said.

The ministry plans to select the study’s provider by October. An interim report is expected five months after the work begins, and the final report must be completed within nine months.

Estonia’s Education Development Plan for 2021 to 2035 identifies a lack of clarity over how responsibility is divided between the state, local governments and the private sector as a weakness in the education system. By 2035, responsibility for ensuring study places is expected to rest entirely with the state.