Russia considering hybrid attack on Baltics and Poland, minister says

Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas says Russia is considering a hybrid attack against the Baltic states and Poland, although it has not made a final decision, LRT reported.

He said intelligence indicates that Ukrainian-made drones could be used to strike critical infrastructure in Lithuania or other countries in the region. Lithuania has strengthened the protection of such facilities, while Prime Minister Robertas Kaunas said the threat level had not changed drastically.

One possible scenario would involve a Ukrainian drone hitting an energy or infrastructure facility in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland, while actually being launched by Russia. The minister said this could make it difficult to prove who organised the attack and could complicate the response from NATO and the public.

A more dangerous scenario would involve Russian agents entering the territory of the Baltic states or Poland and launching a drone at a target such as one of the remaining Wildberries warehouses. Russia could then present the attack as evidence that the Baltic states had become involved in the conflict and were legitimate targets, Kaunas said.

“Something may happen in the near future, in the coming day, but there is no date. We are monitoring Russia’s planning stage, as other NATO countries are also discussing,” Kaunas said.

According to the minister, the Kremlin could seek several gains from either scenario. NATO would face difficulty responding if Russia’s role could not be established conclusively, while Moscow could try to create tensions between NATO and Ukraine by raising doubts about Ukrainian responsibility.

“They are looking for alternative ways to escalate the situation. One of the things they want to achieve is for NATO to waver and reduce its support for Ukraine. I can assure you, that will not happen,” Kaunas said.

Political scientist Nerijus Maliukevičius described the approach as a classic tactic dating back to the Soviet era: escalate a situation, withdraw and present the withdrawal as a concession during negotiations.

He said the alliance could face a choice between prioritising the security of the Baltic states and continuing assistance to Ukraine. NATO could either seek to calm the Kremlin through concessions or demonstrate through its defence capabilities that such actions were unacceptable and could draw a punitive response.

Former Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said a potential attack might target not only critical infrastructure but also sites likely to trigger strong public emotions. He argued that Lithuania had preventive measures it had not yet used, including tighter restrictions on transit to Kaliningrad.

Anušauskas proposed limiting the time vehicles travelling from Belarus to Kybartai could spend in Lithuania. He said transit vehicles could be marked and required to complete the journey within three hours, which he said would be enough to cross Lithuania but not to arrange meetings or other activities.

Concerns about possible Ukrainian strikes on Kaliningrad have also prompted increased security measures there, according to the report. Naval vessels are being concealed under nets, similar coverings are being placed around port entrances to prevent water drones from entering, fighter aircraft decoys are being painted on runways and communications frequencies are being disrupted.