Politicians identify Russian hybrid operations as Lithuania’s main threat

LRT reports that members of Lithuania’s parliamentary National Security and Defence Committee agree Russia’s greatest current threat to the country comes not only from conventional military force but also from hybrid operations, including sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and possible strikes against strategic facilities or individuals.

However, the politicians differ on whether state institutions are communicating the risks clearly enough and whether warnings are being followed by concrete decisions.

ELTA interviewed committee members Laurynas Kasčiūnas, Tomas Martinaitis and Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen about current national security threats, Lithuania’s preparedness for possible Russian provocations and the state’s communication with the public.

The interviews took place before information appeared in the media and was later confirmed by Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas that military intelligence had data about possible Russian provocations in the Baltic region. The minister said Russia had not yet made a decision and that there was no precise date for a possible attack.

Hybrid operations pose an immediate danger

Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Homeland Union Lithuanian Christian Democrats and deputy chairman of the National Security and Defence Committee, said Russia’s conventional military potential remained Lithuania’s main threat.

He said the stalled war in Ukraine was giving Lithuania time to strengthen its defence capabilities by forming a Lithuanian division, accepting allied forces and implementing NATO operational plans.

“Without any doubt, the greatest threat was, is and will remain Russia’s conventional military threat in the near future,” Kasčiūnas told ELTA.

He said so-called grey-zone operations currently posed the greatest practical danger. These include sabotage, provocations, attacks on strategic infrastructure and other acts of sabotage.

Kasčiūnas also stressed the need to invest not only in traditional weapons but also in new technologies and future warfare capabilities.

Martinaitis, a representative of the Social Democratic Party’s parliamentary group and a member of the committee, gave a similar assessment. He said Lithuania’s NATO membership made a war scenario like the one currently seen in Ukraine unlikely, but that this did not mean the threats had decreased.

“Today, both intelligence institutions and President Gitanas Nausėda, who spoke about this several weeks ago, emphasise that the threat from so-called hybrid threats has increased particularly sharply in recent years,” Martinaitis said.

He said the greatest concerns were Russian intelligence-led attempts to disrupt public order, damage critical infrastructure and carry out continuing cyberattacks.

Čmilytė-Nielsen, leader of the Liberal Movement and a committee member, also said the security situation in the region remained tense and that the state had to consistently strengthen its resilience.

“The state must constantly increase its resilience by strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure, the fight against disinformation and society’s resilience. Today, the battle for people’s minds is one of the most important areas of hybrid warfare,” she said.

Individuals could also become targets

The politicians agreed that Russian operations could target not only energy facilities and other strategic sites.

Martinaitis said scenarios in which specific individuals became targets could not be ruled out.

“There could also be certain intelligence operations directed against people who organise support for Ukraine or are otherwise connected with the war. Such scenarios cannot be ruled out,” he told ELTA.