Lithuania strengthens infrastructure security over possible Russian provocations

Russia is considering possible provocations in the Baltic region, including false flag operations, Lithuania’s Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said, according to LRT. He added that some critical infrastructure sites in Lithuania had been placed under increased protection.

Kaunas said Lithuanian intelligence was collecting information and monitoring Russia’s planning, while the military and other security institutions were assessing the situation.

However, Russia has not made a decision to carry out any operation, and there is no direct threat of an imminent incident, the minister said.

“There is no such date. We are monitoring Russia’s planning, as are other NATO countries, including Poland and Lithuania’s Baltic neighbours,” Kaunas said.

He said a possible false flag operation could involve Russia attempting to mislead the Baltic states about who carried out an attack. One possible scenario would be the use of drones made to look Ukrainian to strike targets in the Baltic countries.

According to Kaunas, Russia has intercepted some Ukrainian drones and recovered parts and fragments from others. He said Russia could theoretically use those components to assemble a functioning device for a false flag operation.

The minister stressed that Russian military capabilities were not being amassed near Lithuania and that officials were not discussing a conventional military threat. The likelihood of Russia attacking Lithuania or the Baltic states using conventional military means remains low, he said.

Kaunas said the most realistic scenario at present was a false flag operation involving a fake Ukrainian drone. He added that one possible aim could be to make NATO waver and reduce its support for Ukraine.

He said NATO would continue supporting Ukraine and reiterated that Lithuania had not provided its airspace or territory for military operations. Lithuania supports Ukraine with technology and financially, he said, but is not at war, does not plan to go to war and will not provide its airspace or territory for military operations against any state.