Lithuania to discuss extending 5% GDP defence funding beyond 2030

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has expressed hope that political parties will agree to maintain defence spending at 5% of GDP beyond 2030, following a meeting with Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius, LRT reports.

Sinkevičius confirmed that discussions with parties will begin, but questioned whether the current political forces should commit future parliamentary terms to such obligations. The State Audit Office has also emphasised the need for significant defence funding to continue after 2030.

In 2022, parliamentary parties signed an agreement on defence guidelines and funding, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Laurynas Kasčiūnas, a conservative MP involved in drafting the document, supports renewing the agreement now, citing the evolving nature of warfare.

“Warfare does not stand still. It demands technology, innovation, and progress. Resources must be invested in innovation and adapted to prepare for future warfare and state defence, not past conflicts,” Kasčiūnas said.

Sinkevičius stated that Lithuania will remain a “5% defence club member” but noted that parliamentary elections in 2028 must be considered. “We will discuss at the party level how and whether to do this. The political cycle dictates that we will have parliamentary elections in 2028. Of course, we need to look ahead, but I don’t know if current parties have the mandate to set guidelines beyond their own term,” he said.

Agnė Širinskienė, leader of the Democrats “For Lithuania” faction, and liberal MP Eugenijus Gentvilas argued that an agreement would ensure continuity in defence policy. Širinskienė called it a good decision, especially if the president’s advice is based on military recommendations. Gentvilas stressed that while technological changes may require adjustments, abandoning defence funding is not an option.

State Controller Irena Segalovičienė stated in May, after the first audit of the Ministry of Defence, that significant defence funding should continue beyond 2030. The president awaits a cross-party consensus. “The president believes security is a fundamental goal for Lithuania, above party politics. It would be good if different Seimas parties, regardless of the ruling majority, agreed on funding after 2030,” said presidential advisor Vaidas Augustinavičius.

By 2030, Lithuania must fully prepare a division, strengthen air defence, and host a German brigade. While no official agreement exists for post-2030 plans, procurement is already planned. Funding will be needed to sustain the division, modernise the military, expand drone and air defence capabilities, and potentially introduce universal conscription or take initial steps toward military aviation.