Russia may target Baltic region amid struggles in Ukraine, says Lithuanian defence minister

Lithuania’s defence minister has warned that Russia may seek new targets in the Baltic region and Poland as it fails to achieve victory in Ukraine.

Speaking to LRT Radio on Monday, Robertas Kaunas said Moscow is looking for a new escalation or “victory” as its war in Ukraine stalls, domestic pressure grows, and explosions rock Russian cities. “Since the war in Ukraine is not going as Russia planned, they cannot win the war in Ukraine, and today explosions are thundering in Russia itself, there is a fuel shortage (…) Russian society is already asking the Kremlin regime why this is happening and where is the promised victory,” he said.

Kaunas added that the Kremlin needs a new escalation, and the Baltic region and Poland are the closest targets in this case. His comments follow reports in foreign media, confirmed by BNS, that Russia is planning provocations in Poland or the Baltic states to test NATO unity. According to President Gitanas Nausėda, this information is supported by intelligence data, including potential Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, using both conventional and other means.

Meanwhile, Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski has suggested that Russia could stage a “false flag” operation using Ukrainian drones. In response to potential threats, Lithuania has recently strengthened the protection of its critical transport and energy infrastructure. Kaunas stated that daily intelligence is being analysed to prevent hybrid attacks, with actions coordinated with allies.

“We assess the situation, we see Russia’s aggressive tone, unfounded accusations against the Baltic states, and such provocative behaviour. Lithuania is not provoking Russia in any way with its actions. We are a sovereign country, we are part of the NATO Alliance, the European Union, and we choose to strengthen our defence, strengthen our army, increase integration into Western civilised states, and this should not provoke Russia in any way,” the minister said.

Discussions about possible Russian provocations have intensified as Moscow faces increasing pressure on the battlefield. In recent months, Ukraine has carried out several successful drone operations against Russian oil industry facilities.